17 Jan '13, 1am
I hope that someone like a smarter Kim Dotcom starts a bitcoin prediction market outside the US government's reach.
The terrorism 'market' would work. Market prices move at the margin. That is, big price movements happen when only a small percentage of the total money in the market starts moving. Bad guys will have inside information about pending terrorist stuff when they plan it. The closer it gets to fruition, the more folks will know something big is coming. It is almost impossible to take greed out of humans. Some of the bad guys--or their brother-in-laws, and then their best friends and their best friends--will be unable to resist cashing in on their inside information. This is human nature. It happens all the time in US financial markets even though you can go to jail for doing it. When bad guys start cashing in (or their buddies), the markets start to move. This accomplishes two things: 1) the obvious, we can look at the movement of the market and get a sense of whether intellig...