09 Dec '13, 9am

Testing Shiller's Nobel Prize Against The Bitcoin Bubble

There are a number of problems here: 1) It’s the stretch of the decade to blame the housing bubble on irrationally. That alone cannot cause the price of real assets to become divorced from the fundamentals for years on end. I think bitcoin is a good example. The “bubbles” we have seen in bitcoin thus far have lasted not years, months or even days, but hours before they burst. Irrationally can’t possibly explain multi-years bubbles. There has to be another cause [cough cough zero percent interest rates]. 2) Someone else did win the Nobel Prize this year as well… Eugene Fama. According to the efficient market hypothesis, Bitcoin is not in a bubble. People estimate the expected future value of bitcoin–let’s just say $100,000–and the probability of that happening, say 5%. Today’s price is a reflection of that probability. If it turns out, as the probabilities suggest, that bit...

Full article: http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2013/12/09/testin...

Tweets

Is Bitcoin a speculative bubble?

Is Bitcoin a speculative bubble?

kottke.org 13 Dec '13, 10pm

This chart shows a dramatic reduction in the total number of transactions, irrespective of size, per dollar of bitcoin's m...

BITCOIN: Is It A Future Currency Or Asset Bubble?

BITCOIN: Is It A Future Currency Or Asset Bubble?

businessinsider.com 15 Dec '13, 4am

btckeychain/flickr See Also The European Union Has Issued A Warning About Buying Bitcoin Facebook Stock Added To Dow Jones...

Is that the sound of the Bitcoin Bubble popping?

Is that the sound of the Bitcoin Bubble popping?

venturebeat.com 05 Dec '13, 10pm

Is Bitcoin a viable currency, a speculative investment, or both? If the trends of the last few days continue, the answer m...

China Just Popped the #Bitcoin Bubble: via @sfnuop

China Just Popped the #Bitcoin Bubble: via @sfnuop

motherboard.vice.com 18 Dec '13, 2pm

Chinese banking officials are clamping down on Bitcoin, sending the volatile cryptocurrency tumbling to prices not seen si...

Bitcoin: Bubble? Maybe. The wave of the future? Definitely. | LinkedIn

Bitcoin: Bubble? Maybe. The wave of the future?...

linkedin.com 03 Dec '13, 7pm

Bitcoin. The world’s newest and hottest virtual currency. It has become the story du jour for a financial media hungry for...

Bitcoin

Bitcoin

forbes.com 19 Dec '13, 5pm

It’s been practically impossible to follow the financial news in recent months without coming across almost daily articles...

Currency of the future or asset bubble? Bitcoin's critics get louder

Currency of the future or asset bubble? Bitcoin...

profit.ndtv.com 15 Dec '13, 7am

Once the preserve of cyber geeks or of dodgy traders, the virtual currency Bitcoin can now not only be used to buy goods o...

China's ban has burst the Bitcoin bubble - from...

twitter.com 20 Dec '13, 2am

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"@Forbes: Bitcoin may be following this classic...

twitter.com 20 Dec '13, 7am

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China's ban has burst the Bitcoin bubble - from...

twitter.com 19 Dec '13, 12pm

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Greenspan Baffled Over Bitcoin 'Bubble': "To Be...

zerohedge.com 05 Dec '13, 12am

"In order for currencies to be 'exchangeable' they have to be backed by something," is the remarkably ironic initial comme...

Greenspan Says Bitcoin a Bubble Without Intrinsic Currency Value

Greenspan Says Bitcoin a Bubble Without Intrins...

bloomberg.com 04 Dec '13, 11pm

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said Bitcoin prices are unsustainably high after surging 89-fold in a year ...